In a dazzling twist that’s sure to make history buffs and LGBTQ+ voters perk up, out gay Democrat Pete Buttigieg has emerged as the early frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, according to a new poll from Emerson College. If the momentum holds, Buttigieg could become the first openly gay major-party presidential nominee in U.S. history. (Yes, you read that right.)
The poll, conducted June 24–25, asked likely Democratic voters to look ahead and pick their top choice for the party’s next presidential candidate. Buttigieg, the former Secretary of Transportation and ex-mayor of South Bend, Indiana, topped the list with 16% support – edging out some of the Democratic Party’s biggest names and brightest stars.
Trailing just behind him: Vice President and 2024 nominee Kamala Harris at 13%, California Governor Gavin Newsom at 12%, and both Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro tied at 7%. Meanwhile, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (who some speculate could still mount another campaign at age 87) and a handful of other notable Democrats rounded out the rest of the field.
Still, the most popular response? “Undecided,” with a whopping 23% of respondents unsure who should lead the ticket.
A Groundbreaking Candidacy with Serious Momentum
Buttigieg made history in 2020 as the first openly gay person confirmed to a Cabinet position, serving under President Joe Biden as Secretary of Transportation. His presence in the Biden administration – and his previous groundbreaking 2020 presidential campaign—has made him a rising star in progressive and centrist circles alike.
Now, it seems Democratic voters are ready for more Mayor Pete. And should he clinch the nomination, he’d break through one of the last glass ceilings in American politics: becoming the first openly gay presidential nominee of a major political party.
Talk about redefining the “straight” path to the White House.
Over on the GOP Side…
Meanwhile, in Republican-land, the Emerson poll showed a very different frontrunner: Vice President J.D. Vance. The once-best-selling author turned MAGA loyalist took a commanding 46% of GOP support. Vance was miles ahead of his closest rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who mustered just 12%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Vance has “solidified himself as the frontrunner in the 2028 nomination contest,” especially among male GOP voters and those over 60. It’s a stark reflection of the party’s current direction – and a potential showdown in the making for 2028.
What About Trump?
For the first time this year, the Emerson poll recorded a net negative approval rating for former President Donald Trump. Forty-six percent of respondents disapproved of the job he’s doing, while 45% approved. It’s a statistical squeaker, but notable given Trump’s longstanding dominance among GOP voters.
And looking even closer to the horizon, the 2026 midterms are showing early signs of a Democratic edge. Emerson’s numbers suggest independents are currently favoring Democrats over Republicans 37% to 27%, though a hefty 36% of independents are still undecided.
Queer Futures on the Ballot
For LGBTQ+ Americans, Buttigieg’s strong showing in this early polling isn’t just a political footnote – it’s a cultural milestone. His rise comes amid ongoing political attacks on queer communities, including legislation targeting trans rights, drag performers, and inclusive education.
If there’s ever been a time for queer leadership in American politics, it’s now. And voters, it seems, are taking notice.
So, while 2028 may still be three years away, one thing’s for sure: Pete Buttigieg’s political star is shining brighter than ever – and if the polls are any indication, the road to the White House might just be rainbow-paved.
